Infectious Disease Epidemiology

  • Quantification of transmission dynamics and control
  • Theoretical framework construction
  • Bayesian Inference
  • COVID-19
  • Monkeypox

My research work revolves around mathematical formulation of infectous disease dynamics to contribute to public health issues. For directly transmitted diseases, each of observed cases is not independent (infector-infectee relationship), which is often refered to as dependent happening. This phenomenon leads to the need for the reconstuction of transmission dynamics in terms of mathematical modelling to account for non-i.i.d. setting.
My main interest lies in quantifying natural history, transmission dynamics, and control (i.e.,non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccine strategy, etc.) and constructing a theoretical framework, sometimes using Bayesian approach.

Recent activity

  • 27.Sep.2022. Updated this webiste.
  • 22.Sep.2022. Second-authoring paper is now out in Science as first release: link
  • 10.Sep.2022. It was an honour to be invited to COVID-19 pandemic conference at Nagoya and give a presentation entitled 'Impacts of vaccine, healthcare burden, and temperature on the transmissibility or virulence of COVID-19'.
  • 06.Sep.2022 My ongoing research project and results were introduced at UKHSA-JUNIPER MPX Network Modelling Seminar.
  • 24.Aug.2022 Our accepted manuscript in EID journal (early release) is now published in Volume 28, Number 9—September 2022: link
  • 16.Jul.2022 New paper (preprint) is out in medRxiv: link
  • We proposed a novel Bayesian framework for estimating waning of variant-specific vaccine effectiveness from routinely-collected population-level surveillance data in the presence of multi-variant circulation.
  • 15.Jul.2022 Great to have an opportunity to present about 'an introduction to infectious disease epidemiology and its mathematical modelling' at Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine Students' Branch.
  • 14.Jul.2022 Paper accepted at Emerging Infectious Diseases (early release): link
  • We estimated vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 death in Tokyo, Japan in 2021 and explored the impact of healthcare burden on time-varying case fatality risk by constructing a mathematical model.
  • 13.Jun.2022 Co-authoring Paper (preprint) is out in medRxiv: link
  • Using a mathematical model on sexual contact network data in UK, we tried to explain the epidemiology of monkeypox outbreak in non-endemic regions, May 2022. In the course of the analysis, we also found scale-free property does not describe existing dataset of MSM partnership well.


Article (†: equal contribution)

  • Endo A, Murayama H, Abbott S, Ratnayake R, Pearson CAB, Edmunds WJ, Fearon E†, Funk S†. Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and monkeypox epidemiology in the global outbreak, 2022. Science. 2022 Sep 25;0(0):eadd4507.
  • Ko KY, Murayama H, Yamasaki L, Kinoshita R, Suzuki M, Nishiura H. Age-Dependent Effects of COVID-19 Vaccine and of Healthcare Burden on COVID-19 Deaths, Tokyo, Japan. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2022;28(9).
  • Murayama H†, Yamasaki L†, Hashizume M. The impact of temperature on the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan. Scientific Reports. 2021;11(1):24477.
  • Murayama H, Kayano T, Nishiura H. Estimating COVID-19 cases infected with the variant alpha (VOC 202012/01): an analysis of screening data in Tokyo, January-March 2021. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling. 2021;18(1):13.

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