Publications

Preprints | Peer-reviewed papers | Conference | Journal Correspondence | Reports | Media

Updated: 14 May 2026

You can also find the full publication list on my Google Scholar profile.

† represents equal contribution.

Preprints

Different time scales used for sexual partner surveys pose a challenge in modelling dynamics of sexually transmitted infections

Preprint sexually transmitted infections sexual networks survey design

Murayama H, Nishi A, Endo A (2023). "Different time scales used for sexual partner surveys pose a challenge in modelling dynamics of sexually transmitted infections." medRxiv. 2023.12.25.23300526.
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Peer-reviewed papers

2026

Role of community and sexual contacts as drivers of MPXV clade I

Published mpox clade I community transmission sexual networks

Murayama H†, Asakura TR†, Dickens BL, Boyle D, Foo JH, Jin S, Mukadi PK, Ejima K, Jung S-m, Nishi A, Prem K, Wakamba AM, Saila-Ngita D, Niyukuri D, Endo A (2026). "Role of community and sexual contacts as drivers of MPXV clade I." Nature Health. 2026.
Publication link PDF GitHub repository

2025

Disentangling temporal trends of clade Ib monkeypox virus transmission in Burundi

Published mpox clade Ib Burundi

Jin S, Asakura TR, Murayama H, Jung S, Niyukuri D, Nyandwi J, Nkengurutse L, Kamatari O, Lim JT, Endo A, Dickens BSL (2025). "Disentangling temporal trends of clade Ib monkeypox virus transmission in Burundi." The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2025;jiaf475.
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Vaccination strategies to achieve outbreak control for MPXV Clade I with a one-time mass campaign in sub-Saharan Africa: A scenario-based modelling study

Published mpox vaccination outbreak control

Jin S, Asakura TR, Murayama H, Niyukuri D, Saila-Ngita D, Lim JT, Endo A, Dickens BSL (2025). "Vaccination strategies to achieve outbreak control for MPXV Clade I with a one-time mass campaign in sub-Saharan Africa: A scenario-based modelling study." PLOS Medicine. 2025;22(9):e1004726.
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Evaluating the effectiveness of international travel controls to identify MPXV-infected travelers: a simulation study

Published mpox travel controls importation screening

Ejima K†, Wang Y†, Endo A†, Murayama H, Goh YS, Cook AR, Jeong YD, Iwami S, Park H, Dickens BSL, Jin S, Lim JT, Chan CEZ, Chia PY, Young BE, Chio M, Lye DC, Ajelli M (2025). "Evaluating the effectiveness of international travel controls to identify MPXV-infected travelers: a simulation study." BMC Medicine. 2025;23(1):473.
Publication link PDF GitHub repository

Modelling international spread of clade IIb mpox on the Asia continent

Published mpox international spread Asia

Asakura TR, Jung S, Murayama H, Ghaznavi C, Sakamoto H, Teshima A, Miura F, Endo A (2025). "Modelling international spread of clade IIb mpox on the Asia continent." Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 2025.
Publication link PDF GitHub repository

2024

Dynamic landscape of mpox importation risks driven by heavy-tailed sexual contact networks among men who have sex with men in 2022: a mathematical modeling study

Published mpox importation risk sexual networks

Jung S†, Miura F†, Murayama H, Funk S, Wallinga J, Lessler J, Endo A (2024). "Dynamic landscape of mpox importation risks driven by heavy-tailed sexual contact networks among men who have sex with men in 2022: a mathematical modeling study." The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2024;jiae433.
Publication link PDF GitHub repository

Accumulation of immunity in heavy-tailed sexual contact networks shapes mpox outbreak sizes

Published mpox sexual networks immunity

Murayama H, Pearson CAB, Abbott S, Miura F, Jung S, Fearon E, Funk S, Endo A (2024). "Accumulation of immunity in heavy-tailed sexual contact networks shapes mpox outbreak sizes." The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2024 Jan 15;229(1):59–63.
Publication link PDF GitHub repository

2023

Estimation of waning vaccine effectiveness from population-level surveillance data in multi-variant epidemics

Published COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness multi-variant epidemics

Murayama H, Endo A, Yoneoka S (2023). "Estimation of waning vaccine effectiveness from population-level surveillance data in multi-variant epidemics." Epidemics. 2023;45:100726.
Publication link PDF GitHub repository

2022

Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and monkeypox epidemiology in the global outbreak, 2022

Published mpox sexual networks outbreak dynamics

Endo A, Murayama H, Abbott S, Ratnayake R, Pearson CAB, Edmunds WJ, Fearon E†, Funk S† (2022). "Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and monkeypox epidemiology in the global outbreak, 2022." Science. 378(6615):90-94.
Publication link PDF GitHub repository

Age-Dependent Effects of COVID-19 Vaccine and of Healthcare Burden on COVID-19 Deaths, Tokyo, Japan

Published COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness healthcare burden

Ko KY, Murayama H, Yamasaki L, Kinoshita R, Suzuki M, Nishiura H (2022). "Age-Dependent Effects of COVID-19 Vaccine and of Healthcare Burden on COVID-19 Deaths, Tokyo, Japan." Emerging Infectious Diseases. 28(9):1777-1786.
Publication link PDF GitHub repository

2021

The impact of temperature on the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan

Published COVID-19 climate transmissibility

Murayama H†, Yamasaki L†, Hashizume M (2021). "The impact of temperature on the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan." Scientific Reports. 2021;11(1):24477.
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Estimating COVID-19 cases infected with the variant alpha (VOC 202012/01): an analysis of screening data in Tokyo, January-March 2021

Published COVID-19 variants surveillance

Murayama H, Kayano T, Nishiura H (2021). "Estimating COVID-19 cases infected with the variant alpha (VOC 202012/01): an analysis of screening data in Tokyo, January-March 2021." Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling. 2021;18(1):13.
Publication link PDF

Conference

Transmission dynamics and risk assessment of mpox clade IIb and Ib within men who have sex with men

Conference mpox sexual networks

Murayama H, Endo A. "Transmission dynamics and risk assessment of mpox clade IIb and Ib within men who have sex with men." Early Career Researcher Sandbox session, Infectious Disease Modelling conference. Nov 2024. Bangkok, Thailand.
Slide PDF Blog post

Journal Correspondence

Preemptive Mpox Vaccine Deployment: Aligning Strategy with Reality

Journal correspondence mpox vaccine effectiveness

Jung S, Miura F, Murayama H, Funk S, Wallinga J, Lessler J, Endo A. (2025) "Preemptive Mpox Vaccine Deployment: Aligning Strategy with Reality." The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2025 Jul;jiaf365.
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Reports

Evaluating the Age-Specific Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Death from surveillance data in Tokyo

Report COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness surveillance

Ko KY, Murayama H, Yamasaki L, Kinoshita R, Nishiura H, Suzuki M. (2021) "Evaluating the Age-Specific Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Death from surveillance data in Tokyo." Materials 3-2, 65th Advisory Board Meeting, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on COVID-19 Countermeasures (28 December 2021), 79-90. 28 Dec 2021. (in Japanese)
Report PDF

Evaluating the Age-Specific Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Death from surveillance data in Tokyo

Report COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness surveillance

Ko KY, Murayama H, Yamasaki L, Kinoshita R, Nishiura H, Suzuki M. (2021) "Evaluating the Age-Specific Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Death from surveillance data in Tokyo." National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Infectious Diseases Surveillance Center. 28 Dec 2021. (in Japanese)
Report link

Media

Japanese Scientists in Science 2022

Media

Endo A, Murayama H. "Japanese Scientists in Science 2022." AAAS
Media PDF

Weekly Medical Journal feature

Media

Nishiura H, Murayama H. Media feature. Weekly Medical Journal Vol. 3381, Igaku-Shoin. 10 Aug 2020.
Media link