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About me
Hiroaki Murayama works on mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, with interests in transmission dynamics, Bayesian inference, and environmental epidemiology.
Recent Activities
Recent research activities, publications, presentations, and professional updates from Hiroaki Murayama.
Publications
Searchable publication list for Hiroaki Murayama, including peer-reviewed papers, preprints, conference outputs, reports, and media.
Posts
Infectious Disease Modelling conference 2024
Published:
portfolio
publications
Estimating COVID-19 cases infected with the variant alpha (VOC 202012/01): an analysis of screening data in Tokyo, January-March 2021
Published COVID-19 variants surveillance
Murayama H, Kayano T, Nishiura H (2021). "Estimating COVID-19 cases infected with the variant alpha (VOC 202012/01): an analysis of screening data in Tokyo, January-March 2021." Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling. 2021;18(1):13.
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The impact of temperature on the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan
Published COVID-19 climate transmissibility
Murayama H†, Yamasaki L†, Hashizume M (2021). "The impact of temperature on the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan." Scientific Reports. 2021;11(1):24477.
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Age-Dependent Effects of COVID-19 Vaccine and of Healthcare Burden on COVID-19 Deaths, Tokyo, Japan
Published COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness healthcare burden
Ko KY, Murayama H, Yamasaki L, Kinoshita R, Suzuki M, Nishiura H (2022). "Age-Dependent Effects of COVID-19 Vaccine and of Healthcare Burden on COVID-19 Deaths, Tokyo, Japan." Emerging Infectious Diseases. 28(9):1777-1786.
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Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and monkeypox epidemiology in the global outbreak, 2022
Published mpox sexual networks outbreak dynamics
Endo A, Murayama H, Abbott S, Ratnayake R, Pearson CAB, Edmunds WJ, Fearon E†, Funk S† (2022). "Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and monkeypox epidemiology in the global outbreak, 2022." Science. 378(6615):90-94.
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Estimation of waning vaccine effectiveness from population-level surveillance data in multi-variant epidemics
Published COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness multi-variant epidemics
Murayama H, Endo A, Yoneoka S (2023). "Estimation of waning vaccine effectiveness from population-level surveillance data in multi-variant epidemics." Epidemics. 2023;45:100726.
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Different time scales used for sexual partner surveys pose a challenge in modelling dynamics of sexually transmitted infections
Preprint sexually transmitted infections sexual networks survey design
Murayama H, Nishi A, Endo A (2023). "Different time scales used for sexual partner surveys pose a challenge in modelling dynamics of sexually transmitted infections." medRxiv. 2023.12.25.23300526.
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Accumulation of immunity in heavy-tailed sexual contact networks shapes mpox outbreak sizes
Published mpox sexual networks immunity
Murayama H, Pearson CAB, Abbott S, Miura F, Jung S, Fearon E, Funk S, Endo A (2024). "Accumulation of immunity in heavy-tailed sexual contact networks shapes mpox outbreak sizes." The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2024 Jan 15;229(1):59–63.
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Dynamic landscape of mpox importation risks driven by heavy-tailed sexual contact networks among men who have sex with men in 2022: a mathematical modeling study
Published mpox importation risk sexual networks
Jung S†, Miura F†, Murayama H, Funk S, Wallinga J, Lessler J, Endo A (2024). "Dynamic landscape of mpox importation risks driven by heavy-tailed sexual contact networks among men who have sex with men in 2022: a mathematical modeling study." The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2024;jiae433.
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Modelling international spread of clade IIb mpox on the Asia continent
Published mpox international spread Asia
Asakura TR, Jung S, Murayama H, Ghaznavi C, Sakamoto H, Teshima A, Miura F, Endo A (2025). "Modelling international spread of clade IIb mpox on the Asia continent." Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 2025.
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Evaluating the effectiveness of international travel controls to identify MPXV-infected travelers: a simulation study
Published mpox travel controls importation screening
Ejima K†, Wang Y†, Endo A†, Murayama H, Goh YS, Cook AR, Jeong YD, Iwami S, Park H, Dickens BSL, Jin S, Lim JT, Chan CEZ, Chia PY, Young BE, Chio M, Lye DC, Ajelli M (2025). "Evaluating the effectiveness of international travel controls to identify MPXV-infected travelers: a simulation study." BMC Medicine. 2025;23(1):473.
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Vaccination strategies to achieve outbreak control for MPXV Clade I with a one-time mass campaign in sub-Saharan Africa: A scenario-based modelling study
Published mpox vaccination outbreak control
Jin S, Asakura TR, Murayama H, Niyukuri D, Saila-Ngita D, Lim JT, Endo A, Dickens BSL (2025). "Vaccination strategies to achieve outbreak control for MPXV Clade I with a one-time mass campaign in sub-Saharan Africa: A scenario-based modelling study." PLOS Medicine. 2025;22(9):e1004726.
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Disentangling temporal trends of clade Ib monkeypox virus transmission in Burundi
Published mpox clade Ib Burundi
Jin S, Asakura TR, Murayama H, Jung S, Niyukuri D, Nyandwi J, Nkengurutse L, Kamatari O, Lim JT, Endo A, Dickens BSL (2025). "Disentangling temporal trends of clade Ib monkeypox virus transmission in Burundi." The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2025;jiaf475.
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Role of community and sexual contacts as drivers of MPXV clade I
Published mpox clade I community transmission sexual networks
Murayama H†, Asakura TR†, Dickens BL, Boyle D, Foo JH, Jin S, Mukadi PK, Ejima K, Jung S-m, Nishi A, Prem K, Wakamba AM, Saila-Ngita D, Niyukuri D, Endo A (2026). "Role of community and sexual contacts as drivers of MPXV clade I." Nature Health. 2026.
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